Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.028577 0.032502 0.036803 0.041870 0.047682 0.054148 0.061900
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.021976 0.027187 0.033422 0.041453 0.051561 0.063903 0.080188
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.018999 0.024871 0.032325 0.042532 0.056219 0.074045 0.099197
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.016384 0.022439 0.030503 0.042102 0.058482 0.080973 0.114513
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.015000 0.021374 0.030224 0.043520 0.063178 0.091469 0.135808
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.013068 0.019260 0.028172 0.042070 0.063449 0.095500 0.147958
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.011686 0.017761 0.026794 0.041372 0.064631 0.100841 0.162538
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.010311 0.016109 0.024988 0.039766 0.064136 0.103398 0.172802
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.009825 0.015778 0.025164 0.041277 0.068742 0.114549 0.198595
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.009384 0.015462 0.025314 0.042728 0.073359 0.126151 0.226520
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.008982 0.015166 0.025452 0.044146 0.078026 0.138285 0.256831
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.008316 0.014352 0.024633 0.043793 0.079475 0.144785 0.277346
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.007689 0.013566 0.023813 0.043397 0.080886 0.151516 0.299499
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007128 0.012845 0.023046 0.043028 0.082313 0.158459 0.323050
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006833 0.012580 0.023074 0.044146 0.086714 0.171638 0.361137
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006360 0.011938 0.022338 0.043699 0.087931 0.178531 0.386685
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006166 0.011810 0.022563 0.045174 0.093222 0.194393 0.434086
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005644 0.010996 0.021383 0.043666 0.092069 0.196424 0.450257
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.005258 0.010418 0.020618 0.042940 0.092509 0.201937 0.475250
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.004809 0.009677 0.019461 0.041270 0.090687 0.202181 0.487548
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004714 0.009656 0.019784 0.042841 0.096327 0.220099 0.546062
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004615 0.009619 0.020068 0.044351 0.101985 0.238704 0.608995
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004517 0.009573 0.020327 0.045825 0.107716 0.258146 0.676960